Yield Curve & Currency Yields

No brainer. With short rates hung permanently as Japan at zip.....and all institutions saved, money moves out of the longer end as uncertainty over printing money (although in so many ways the loss of asset value would require so much printing it hardly can make up for the losses ....which in economics.....go to "social value" ....figure that one out any way you wish).
But know that a credit card account (or mortgage or any loan) in default unpaid, with exorbantant fees and rates tacked on as banks tried to beat honesty and dealing straight by cheating first.....these are worth 100% of thier worthless value due to the new accounting rules. Yet are worthless and bang the banks value up artificially. It will not always be so when they come clean on non performing issues and swap debt and losses that will shift the asset of 100% of value to nothing. And the rolled mortgage paper, rolled commercial, etc.....the Fed has expanded its sheet, and yet at some point this (as now being done "as though" it all has 100% of face value) will change too. How long this continues is connected to how long we get negative numbers for unemployment figures each first Friday of the month, and each Thurday, how many are still headed for the claims office. When you think of why anyone is hired back, you will see this is a long long time. Kudos to the Fed and Treasury under Obama for rules on giving away taxpayer money (and making money on it) and for health and other reforms all our competitors have funded and take for granted. We still owe on SS and medicare. And why we hate to help and pay for each other is past me. i do not wish to pave your roads (I have a horse). ...I do not wish to protect our borders (I have a gun) and I am a doctor so screw anyone thinking I should pay for their health, and I have no need for education as my kids are grown and educated. Is this the attitude? Then we are done.
If we see it as infrastucture that is absolutely REQUIRED for our future as a country, we will see it differently. In any case the stupidity of those who think they do not pay for those uninsured puts them in my third grade class as average and too stupid to understand they do pay. To speak of taxes as income vs effective tax rates is insanity. To say only the rich pay taxes is equally insane as the poor pay 50% of income on taxes (sales, gas, federal and state and property and labor work on their car etc) and their disposable income is nil. As to the later half voting....yes they need education. As to their causing the problem, I do not think they asked banks for loans and were accepted with zero down and no docs or prime (depending as prime is the problem now) but the banks making what they though was easy money on the loans, the rate over libor (or other) and on selling derivatives (what priced on mathematica by some MBA who actually knew some math, can figure Black Scholes and add on, charge more....without a hedge that is real makes money but for now? oh, and recall, Black Scholes misunderstanding how far you can stretch risk and statistics with long Term Capital lost billions (nearly trillions) only to come back with more money from other sources. Unreal.
So no. The common working person has no clue but that they are optimistic they will do better in the future and can pay it now.
But things happen.
Greed for example by their company CEO may switch all their work to China to build nukes in N Korea and Iran and threaten us that our system sucks.
Then when actually asked to form a basket with their currency refuse as it destroys their game of low balling it with cheap labor only. They make nothing better than any country. They only make it cheaper. That is not fair nor comparative or competitive advantage the way I see it. If the product has nothing more efficient or new or better about it but cheap, made by a subsidizing tryanny that sounds just like Iran (when speaking of political prisoners etc and election fraud) dont your wonder. Dont you wonder why Rove destroyed Perot for objecting to NAFTA (and now being right as rain and an entire party is lost?) Dont you wonder why Bani-Sadr the big time giu in Iraqi congress is related to (a nephew of) the Ayatollah Khomenni? Or that Segretti, a break in artist for nixon worked as a McCain political advisor in the last election coming up with some whoppers? Or that George Bush met William Casey after WW II (when the CIA was the OSS) agreeing Iran and the Shah then (later no change, the Ayatollah) could be used to sell guns via the NSA and cocaine money from the Cali and Medellin cartels to support the contras .....when our congress denied them the money? That Bush as CIA director placed Noriega in Panama and helped Sadam Hussein (as in maybe slipped him weapons of mass destruction?) The former to shove cocaine into US heads of teens and others, the later to deal with the USSR in Afghanistan and keep Iran out? Choicepoint and their merged Fla (right after the election) rivals DBT (Choicepoint a spin off of my favoite fools destroying credit due to nothing like ability to pay or history but neighborhood, where you charged, etc and are completely worthless regarding prediction yet figure all your credit scores and should be abolished and replaced.........) yet Choicepoint, if you are an information freak into being a PI should be a favorite love, as they collect so much crap on all, including true and untrue info....they are hired, mostly by companies and governments (in the USA, states, etc) to say ferret out felons an their names.
If Florida does so with a republican governor and attorney general (known to take bribes as she smiles) and in their hiring asks choicepoint to remove the chance of a felon voting (say in a republican district if the state is republican) will remove that persons vote, however, in a county joureymandered into democrats, choice point will help in finding those dreaded felons (maybe someone in jail for cocaine use and sales for the CIA for money Iran for guns to Nicaragua will use the name of the offender: John Smith and then remove ALL John Smith votes as invalid from the democratic county, so Bush wins not Gore.
DBT merged with Choicepoint of Atlanta (and other places) the day AFTER the Florida election. honest. No way I can make this up.
The dirty tricks, the lies, the nonsense is what happens when left with two parties and try to call it a democracy.
Two car companies and say you have choice. Two airlines and dont find price fixing or two huge corn producers and find nothing else to make ethanol from though all the technology is there for your lawn clippings, waste from Kudzu and other crap plants can do the trick too without raising food prices.
ADM and Bunge/Cargill fixed the deal. And yes there is a reason bin Laden can not be found. As privy to money and help to fight USR troops in Afghanistan from the CIA and us (Bush thank you ah, Bush one that is, via help Casey
CIA etc, we used all means)......bin Laden is not to BE found as he knows too much.
Noreiga, Bush appointment gone....anybody in Peoria Federal Prison had an interview lately? No? How about with Sadam Hussein? No? any one asked the current ayatollah in Iran, or have they caught on we dont allow too much knowledge to live long. The undercurrent of what is thought as NSA thinks patriotic is far from what you or any founding father may have thought. They love the US and protection can take any face, such as operating with the mafia to get things done. which can be the ONLY reason we are not now doing business in Cuba.....as Castro was not friendly with the mafia in las vegas as Batista was......gambling protitution etc. And fooled us. The Kennedy family made its fortune two ways, first bootlegging on a size
Capone would have loved, tankers off shore from ireland filled with drinking ethanol. Their son used this money to trade as a member of the NYSE entering government as SEC head at a time the fox was needed to watch the henhouse. And his sons, famous and all but one dead, turned out well.
The Bush Wallace family went the opposite direction, beginning as working their butts off to make a clothing manufacturer in St Louis work, then forming newer companies, through good old fashioned work. Their sons Prescott in particular, found work a pain, became a senator, and the Bush name entered policics and ignored work and business like Zapata (oil driller) Oxidental pet offered 30 bucks a share for early on, went bankrupt, pan am airlines the first airline of fame went bankrupt as they shaded further from work to government work in the name of patriotism, and they became stupid, without needing to work unlike the Kennedies who became more moral and worked harder with time (and gained enemies) the Bush family lived off their family, and were not bright. Thier original Bush, Wallace family fortunes took nose dives until China and Bush I appointment as ambassador then as CIA director and magically life got far better. Jeb, head of South American Citi operations in Miami was hit with money laundering, and Jeb survived it, the rest went to prison.
Recall Phillips who began as a political strategist for Nixon? Who went a bit off the beam to win.
Here is his view (as he remained a republican strategist and took pride in any stragey (as Lyndon Johnson did without Johnsons wish to do well by the people) that would win as Rove too, and Atwater previously mentioned (and you cant make this stuff up....its too real and too sad and unreal for words):
AMY GOODMAN: Kevin Phillips, former Republican strategist, author of called American Dynasty—Aristocracy, Fortune and the Politics of Deceit in the House of Bush. We’ll be back with him in just a minute.

KEVIN PHILLIPS: We had in 2000 an election said to be stolen, by some, by the Republicans. You would think that some of this question about 1980 would have come up. It never did. Frankly, I cannot say that I remembered it at the time. It was only when I got into researching these continuities of scandals that it came up.

Let me turn to the second scandal. This one, you will remember. Everybody remembers it: Iran-Contra. Iran-Contra was a sort of October Surprise II, in a sense, because what you had was the provision, by the Reagan-Bush administration, of arms to Iran in order to get help from the Iranian government, in negotiating the release, by Islamic radicals in Lebanon, of a new set of American hostages taken there.

This became known in late 1986, and a special prosecutor was appointed, and he was not exactly a major Pinko or Liberal. He was Eisenhower’s former deputy Attorney General, Larry Walsh. He wound up indicting Casper Weinberger, the Defense Secretary, and right before the election in ‘92, he made a re-indictment of Weinberger, in which he discussed how George H.W. Bush had been in the loop. He was part of this. There were two or three laws violated. It was serious stuff. Bush denied that he was in the loop. It was so close to the election. This petered out after Bush was defeated, but in December of ’92, Bush pardoned Weinberger, so there could not be a trial, in which Weinberger would have implicated Bush and some other people. So, that’s the second of the scandals in the Middle East.

The third scandal is something called “Iraqgate.” Now most of you have probably forgotten about Iraqgate. These things got pushed aside, when George Bush was defeated in ‘92. The upshot of Iraqgate was that George Bush, as Vice President, got involved in a program of providing arms to Iraq and Saddam Hussein. Not just arms, other supplies, dual use technology, biological cultures, nuclear know-how. All of the sort of things that were described as existing in the form of weapons of mass destruction in 2003. You know, funny thing, the family had an acquaintance with this somewhat earlier. Most of you won’t remember this. That’s the amazing thing. The media people mostly do remember it. They may not remember it very sharply, but you would think it was relevant. Let me read you a quote from Ted Koppel. This was the introduction to ABC news’ “Newsnight” on June 9, 1992. “It is becoming increasingly clear that George Bush, operating largely behind the scenes, through the 1980’s, initiated and supported much of the financing and intelligence and military help that built Saddam’s Iraq into the aggressive power that the United States ultimately had to destroy.” It’s quite an extraordinary circumstance. First time in American history that a father, who was President, built up an enemy he had to fight, and then passed on the animosity to his son, who had the second war. If you want a dynastic element of history, you can look at that one. There was much more to what happened in Iraq than just the simple building up and the war.

One of the points that I make in the book, and it’s not hard to find the material. Saddam invaded Kuwait in the beginning of August, 1990. During June and July of 1990, the State Department people had been flashing a green light to him to go ahead and take a small slice of the northern remallia oil fields in Iraq. That’s what he wanted. So, there are all of these quotes from Margaret Tutwyler, who was Jimmy Baker’s spokeswoman, and the assistant Secretary of the near east, that we had no obligation to defend Kuwait. The United States was not concerned about the oil disputes. It was repeated time after time. We did not have a responsibility to defend Kuwait.

So, on August 2, after hearing all of this stuff, and after the CIA had briefed President Bush Sr. on the fact that they were just expected to take a little slice at the top of Kuwait, Saddam said, you know, why go for the bronze when you can go for the gold? They went right in and they took Kuwait. Now, this was, obviously, embarrassing to the administration potentially, after all of the green lights and after all of the buildup. So, they had to take Saddam, who, up to this point, was just your ordinary garden variety authoritarian bum, and he had to become the second Hitler. That wasn’t too hard because you had a lot to work with. But essentially, they had to throw in a little more for good luck.

There was a hearing conducted in Congress in 1990, in the fall, and there was testimony by a 15-year-old Kuwaiti girl named Nahiryah, that 300-odd premature babies had been ripped out of incubators by the Iraqis when they invaded Kuwait. Well, it turns out nobody—no babies were ripped out of incubators. This was pretty much made up, pumped up by a major U.S. Public relations firm. It was cited a number of times by president Bush, 312 babies ripped out of incubators, but they weren’t. This girl was the daughter of the Kuwaiti ambassador to the United States. She was part of the ruling family.

So, what you have in here was just an enormous patchwork of lies and fake-outs and deceits, and, as this became known better by people in 1991 and ‘92, it became an enormous problem for Bush. I would say that the average American didn’t know all about it, but enough people knew, and Bill Safire, that notorious left-wing columnist for The New York Times, he was so disgusted with Bush, he wrote a column saying how he couldn’t endorse him and couldn’t vote for him in 1992 because of this. There you have a succession of three scandals involving the first Bush president in the Middle East.

Now we jump to a dual scandal that sort of picks up the continuity of generations. This is the Bushes, BCCI and the bin Ladens. Now, they go back. That’s the thing. You wouldn’t think that they do, but they do. In the 1970’s, when George Sr. was the C.I.A director, part of what he did, to watch for developments in the Middle East and the oil industry, involved enlisting as a C.I.A. asset a fellow named James Bath. This is reported in a book by two Time magazine correspondents. Enlisted James Bath, who was the North American representative of two Saudi families—the family of Khalid bin Mafus, and the bin Laden family. But this was Salem bin Laden. Nobody knew about Osama at that time.

Then after his father was in the C.I.A., he leaves. He does his banking and has his Middle East connections, but George W., at this point, is establishing his famous first oil firm. This is Arbusto. Arbusto is Spanish for shrub. I don’t think he knew at the time shrub was going to be a nickname. It was Bush, obviously. So, it turns out as they’re raising money for the firm, he gets $50,000 from James Bath, the North American representative of the bin Ladens and the bin Mafuses. According to the book by the two people from Time, they’re sure that Bath didn’t use his own money, he used the money of his two client families in Saudi Arabia. So, that’s the first connection that brings the bin Ladens into the Bush orbit.

Then we jump ahead to the 1990’s. George senior gets out of office, gets out of the Presidency, and he gets involved in the Carlyle group. The Carlyle group is a merchant bank that I’m sure a number of you know. It consisted of a number of senior people in the Bush and Reagan administrations, Defense Secretary Carlucci, from the first Bush administration, Secretary of State, Jimmy Baker. George Bush Sr., himself becomes a member of the advisory board of the Carlyle group, gives speeches for them, raises money for them. They wind up getting money from 12 Saudi families. And the Saudis are encouraged to give, according to a story in the Washington Post, sort of out of respect for former President Bush. Now, as most of you will probably guess, what is the name of one of the 12 Saudi families, the bin Ladens. So, there they are. They’re in the inner recesses of the Carlysle group and were up until 2001. Nobody exactly knows what they all talked about at these various meetings, but the media have identified that a planeload of bin Ladens were sent back after 9-11, that a number of conferences included from the Carlyle group the former President and some of the bin Ladens, but no real details.

I should say that no family in the American presidency has ever been involved in an overseas region like the Bushes have been involved in the Middle East. George Bush Sr. had his first oil venture dealing with the Persian Gulf in 1961. By 1980’s, the family had basically come to see the region as a spigot. By the 1990’s, not only did you have George W. connected to BCCI and the gulf oil people and the bin Laden family and et cetera, but you had his brothers. His brother, who is now the Governor of Florida, has been reported to have been very friendly during the early 1980’s with the chief Washington and national representative of BCCI, the bank of credit and commerce international that funded a lot of these arms operations. Also known in common parlance as the bank of crooks and criminals internationally.

Jeb was friendly with a fellow who ran it who was based in Miami. Neil, of course, this is the Silverado kid. America’s moral exemplar from the oval office. He has been involved with several different dimensions of this. His business partner down in Houston was described as a Syrian-American businessman in a big Financial Times article that appeared September 12. He was also described, and I don’t think I believe this, as one of the founders of the Ba’ath party in Syria and Iraq. Kind of amazing. Marvin Bush—this is the youngest brother. Marvin Bush went to Kuwait after the war, and made some good business connections. He became a shareholder and director of Kuwait-American corporation and something called Secure-Acom, partly owned by the Kuwatis. For several years, it was one of the contractors for security at the World Trade Center before 2001. You know, that’s kind of amazing, I would think.

So, you have got Bushes and 9-11. What’s the connection? Now, I don’t think that some of the groups that organize with a whole set of Halloween scary stuff are making a great contribution, but I think there is a relationship. Nobody knows quite what it is. Did the Saudi ties interfere with the investigation of 9-11, or taking it seriously before it happened? Did the Saudi ties provoke? Was this part of a reason why the animosity for the United States was so strong? Was it connected to the family? Well, essentially, we don’t know. But there’s some people concerned. You may have seen a former governor, Tom Kane, of New Jersey, running the 9-11 commission, very unhappy about not getting the material from the White House and suggesting that they might have to take measures. He’s a former Republican Governor of New Jersey. Well, then, by the time you start adding up some of the Republicans in this, you may get the sense that this is not that much, purely, a matter of ideology and I think that’s right.

Now, let me turn to the question of Iraq, the inherited war. Now, this, to me, is amazing that you could have had all of these developments in Iraqgate that involve Bush Sr., and the media did not pick up on this, when we had George W. taking office, virtually from the start, obviously looking for a war with Iraq, and maneuvering towards it, and there was just no real linkage of his role and his attitude with his father’s circumstances. The lies about the weapons of mass destruction go right back, and it reminds me of the whole business about the 312 babies in the incubators that never existed and so forth. There’s seemingly no great compunction about making a lot of this stuff up.

The second thing is, you may remember, that right after 9-11, George W. talked about a crusade. Very unfortunate language, because there was nothing more calculated to arouse the Muslims in the Middle East, but it wasn’t just George W., it was this personal circus of religious right leaders that he has dancing around. Falwell referred to Mohammad as a terrorist. The great prophet of Islam is a wild-eyed fanatic. Franklin Graham, Billie’s son, “Islam is evil.” And Jerry Vines, head of the Southern Baptist convention, who referred to Mohammad as a demon-possessed pedophile. These people are unbelievable. We’re trying to convince the Muslims that this is not a holy war, and you have got all of these flaky fundamentalists running loose with every sort of drivel that you can imagine.

And then a lot of people missed the personal aspect of all of this. When George W. was down giving a speech to a Republican audience in Texas in 2002, he said that Iraq was a special preoccupation of the United States, and he was referring to talk about an assassination attempt on his father. He said, Iraq was a special U.S. preoccupation because they tried to kill my dad. I mean, you don’t start a war because of a rumored assassination attempt on your father after he was out of office. You carry that as a grudge, but that’s—you know, that’s something else.

Then you get here the incredible military incompetence of George W. Bush. I don’t see why this hasn’t been an issue from word one. I’m not a total fan of General Clark, but he seems to be making that an issue, and there’s one thing the Republicans cannot say about a man who has four stars on his uniform, and that’s that he is not a patriot. He’s serving a very useful purpose there. But you all remember the George W. and the great top gun moment in May, went out to the carrier and land and announced that the fighting was over. You know, and he wouldn’t know fighting was over any more than a chocolate bar would know what was happening in August sun. And worse than that—and this is the sort of thing that ought to be raised outside of every military base in the Sunbelt. I don’t agree with what Michael Moore said that George W. was a deserter from the Texas Air National Guard. I think that’s excessive. You certainly cannot prove it. But what seems almost beyond a doubt was that he was Absent Without Leave, and I think he should be renamed for the duration of this fighting in the Middle East, Commander AWOL.

Let me stop here, and what I’ll suggest, I’m going to make one suggestion to Liberals, Progressives and Democrats—these are the sort of issues, I think, that if used correctly can do something that will have an enormous effect on the 2004 election. They’ll take back the American flag. Thank you.

And what does this have to do with yeild curve and currency yields? Its what they are based on, but from a global view much of what I stole and typed is known throughout the muslim and rest of the world anyway.
making the changes in GDP listed only days ago more frightening. We have grown only 15 fold in 40 years. not due to government intervention, but flat our useless spending on military losses. To shore up those in office. In short we squandered all built by ignoring what America was about, fairness, good work, good pay and sharing the cost of "our" infrastructure in public schools (not vouchers) and in health and welfare of our people (not lying about who is and who is not employed and espousing risk taking and self employment and business formation that typically fails without help, this is taken into account in most countries, as most have their version of welfare and health funded instead of stuffed with an IOU. We have voted badly.
we have voted with only two choices. we have become what marx said we would. Democracy would become tryanny then anarchy....then communism out of outrage over disparaty in wealth, and damn if he did not nail communism right as well that it would end (as it was against human nature or my dogs nature for that matter to be equal.....good is good, bad is bad, best is best....think Tiger Woods and the rest of us on the course......communism would become tyranny then democracy.
As light turns to dark
as black hole negates big bang eventually and finds us all one not individuals
and that we are simply not god, and too inferior to know.
But never bet against your neighbor, nor try to horde what is your neighbors as we have done this and it comes back to haunt you by a thousand fold.
Instead, help is always the object. To pay tax is to help to make right (as in legislate rules) is right. Change is right.
In a rare moment I see Europeans scrambling after so many problems, kings, bismarks, popes, fools, and adventurers willing to risk others lives and see 18 parties or 12 and see anti trust laws to make competition and innovation work, and see highly paid, highly taxed people sharing costs, with unemployment for those unemployed not simply those fired from a fictional workforce.
I see a maturity not complete but closer to human than the US will ever be able to be as it has destroyed itself in greed and still, they, those of greed and wanting it all continue to rattle the cages and shake the bones and lose hope for all of us without a solution from us together we fail. the yeild curve flies, the currency sinks without printing any, as we have failed to watch and share and grow and help each other do so as well, grabbing our patents, our trademarks as though a Gallo can not make sausage but only wine? And to watch others fail and die without care they could have had, but lacked care, or worked so hard not to fall behind.
This is one sick puppy.
And Obama is the only cure, the smartest president in my life and will give him him the grace of saying ever. And his time is needed and required, fearless and honest and we kill him at one hint of proof of anything less, for this, like France after Louis, is finality for us. We make it, we rally, we strike, we yell and we make it happen. Or we dont. And Obama bears the brunt of it, as he is the right man at the right time.
Einstein was unavailable.
And would be arrested for his zipper being down anyway. Obama has all required.
I am tired to the point of leaving all if we cant bring it together. I know we should.
I know we can.
I will know it when fools leave the air, when idiots stop their strategic Atwater crap and root for and help us all. When hell freezes over? When the yeild curve becomes properly sloped, our currency is worth owning for its potential future not its past, when we accept Brazil's research on independence from imported fuel and Europes experience with health care and Canadas. And when we stop concerning ourself with the 5% who will always cheat and give wealfare and health to help the majority.
and at the same time protect minority views on all subjects as times and views change.
But one thing that will not change: taking care of your fellow human and animal and tree and friend and lover and the blue sky and the clouds and rain and snow and storm and beauty are just part of what we are.....we take it for granted we support all this and more.
off to Chicago. Gone permanently. Things to take care of. No known future, nor place
will begin again when i do. i love this. no idea why, but i get to talk even if only to myself.
there is so much, some conspiracies that are simply stupidity, some stupidity which is a conspiracy, some liberty which is not, some freedom which is not, some regulation which is beautiful as it recognizes our shortcomings, some which is insane
all in all each so complex we try, we change, we wait and we NEVER make a decision on its value until tried. This is an experiment and the flakiest of all is ecoonomics (ok....psychiatry is out to lunch too) and medicine is so far behind as no one understands the entire system. we are not that smart yet.
If one persons biochemistry and reation to any stimuli can not be determined yet as to the youth of biochemistry and the hundreds of years of research to find brain chemistry alone......then it will be long after that, thousands of years, when mass pychology is understood, let alone a single human, and the reaction of the economy is based on this understanding of each, and making more than simple statistical noise, but reality of it......then psychology will appear, then finally economics and sociology as sciences. until then they are nonsense as medicine and pyschiatry are now.
Sell USA
Buy growth in Brazil and South America, hold Europe as a marker in the sand, ignore Asia as it will change far too much to be placed correctly, ignore the middle east, too many bombs to go off, too many old debts to settle, too bad they cant see the futility.
And hang on to Canada (all thing but the USA this hemisphere) and Europe and Russia and when I get a map of Africa with roads and the country names dont change each year, and they stop murdering each other for no reason (like Detroit, and St Louis and Chicago) maybe take a flier.
sell dollars as the debt and all dollars will fly in our faces against those stronger, and commodites from taxes and gold from history.
Keep strong, safe and know taxes are not bad, just look at the list I gave you.
Denmark, happiest, best place to live, and highest tax.
China only 17% would not move there with God.
Chile only 17% (and export economy) will move there tomorrow.
Brazil at 33 plus....smart....pumping money into inclusion strategy.
sudan at 8.5% (where I want Kudlow, limbaugh, coulter and all anti tax republicans to go as its their kind of town. Stavation, murder rape....they'd love it.
Kuwait, 1.2% tax, and the entire royal family lives in LA. Beverly Hills. The import money negates need for taxes except for the poor who die without care.
And last Canada at 33% only 4% more than here, with health care (funded) and welfare for all (funded) and no you must not be fired or laid off, it is there as a safety net. And more millionaires and lower taxes as the are net exporters. And with faster global warming the fastes ports to europe and asia on their arctic ocean.
too cold
Sorry
Bye until relocated.