All are bullish, all forecasts are as well. Find me a bear other than the phantom bears talked about so much by Crammer.....who is nuts as bullish consensus is so high, all are long.....and first out wins. Its a small door to exit, and still bearish (me) sees this as the opportunity for a short. As news of many layoffs, some of which made me laugh like the Verizon lay offs of management (high paying) for part time no benefit weekend sales jobs (low paying) nearly as much as when Verizon decided to stop any new hire from health care, pensions etc. years ago.
Who (I wonder) do they think can afford Verizon pricing in 5 years? As for that matter over time bank (especially Bank of America and AMEX) in take overs fires half and rejuggles the remaining staff part time without benefits (no health) and lower pay. I wonder who the hell is so short sighted in these M&A deals to figure out who their customers will be. or in B of As case, who the hell pays the mortgage or has credit? Short sighted? Yeah.....do they think Chinese and Indian outsourcing will? How incredibly insane and idiotic.
But those who still think we are a democracy not a country run by corporate interests always seem happy with these presidential speeches and buy.
They ignore the huge layoffs (as I have said wait until unemployment in Feb on the first friday and we tank)
as this is not as other times in the past. Always history is there. Not this time. And you know what? B of As new customers ARE Chinese. They own us. Cant buy a damn thing but out debt, but they own us.
Wouldnt it be better if we had manufacturing by highly paid and increasingly higher wages from domestic labor? nah, thats not supply side. (known as voodoo economics then and now)
We have the dollar which should not be reserve currency now (we are less than 20% of the world GDP) but should be in a basket based on GDP. The Yuan included (or "Hu" are you kidding). Because now when 6 billion Chinese and Indians get hungry or want gas they use dollars to buy them. And we suffer deflation masquerading as inflation when 6 billion get in their new cars, or get the urge for chicken dinner.
And the Fed cant halt that. Love the deflationary numbers on housing and that half sales are foreclosures or pre......and entropy destroying the value of the remaining homes fast. And lawsuits (and rightfully so) find our Crammer's big pick (B of A) with a horrible loss.
But Gaap changes cover all the banks losses, bad paper, CDOs and swaps. no disclosure. So we take out (irrationally) the highs by a tad (and stops) and then proceed to take out the lows (6550) on the dow.
So this is perfect. all pundits wrong. equities crash. bonds higher. and all is right in the world. We can not recover without employment. And credit. And so far we have neither and it will appear in February (no seasonal adjustments of first time unemployment claims, no snow up to your neck in the USA.....and we can see how really shitty it is. We are becoming third world in wages and education and health. Or have already gotten there. Mexicans are going home in millions. And I want to follow them. To a better world, or to Brazil.
There is no hope here for decades. A strong stock market does not make a strong economy. Anyway, the correlation with earning and stock prices over time is random, near .50 correlation only over time. And does not matter.
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